To project the conditions we might expect in the future, climate scientiists have created models based on the physical, chemical, and biological processes that form the earth’s climate system. Our ClimateWise planning tools include localized maps and data sets based on these models, adjusted to local and regional scales.
We use source data from the Mapped Atmosphere-Plant-Soil System (MAPPS) project at the U.S. Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station, which were derived from three global climate models: Hadley (HADCM, from the UK), MIROC (from Japan) and CSIRO (from Australia). These data describe a range of projections for temperature, greenhouse gas emissions, air and ocean currents, ice and snow cover, plant growth, particulate matter, and more.
Projections from these models were then adjusted to local and regional scales based on recent temperature and precipitation patterns. These climate model outputs were also applied to the MC1 vegetation model (Bachelet et al. 2001) to describe possible future vegetation types and extent of wildfire.
The resulting combination of localized maps and data can help communities picture the conditions and landscapes they may face in the future, along with the magnitude and direction of change.
Because model outputs vary in their degree of certainty, they are considered projections rather than predictions. Some model outputs, such as temperature, have greater certainty than others, such as vegetation type or runoff. We urge the reader to keep in mind that these model results are presented to explore the types of changes we may see, but actual conditions may be quite different.
Uncertainty associated with projections of future conditions should not be used as a reason for delaying action on climate change. The likelihood that future conditions will resemble historic conditions is very low, so managers and policy makers are encouraged to begin to plan for an era of change, even if the precise impacts are uncertain.
Click here to learn more about specific climate change impacts in your region.
