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FLASH - Final Rogue Basin Report identifies climate change stressors and risks, and offers preparation recommendations!
What Does a Climate-Changed Future Hold in Store for the Rogue River Basin?
The National Center for Conservation Science & Policy and the University of Oregon's Climate Leadership Initiative, in partnership with the US Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station MAPSS Team, downscaled global climate forecasts to determine 
the likely consequences in the Rogue River Basin of southwestern Oregon.
If global emissions continue on their current trajectory, projections for the Rogue River Basin documented in the recently released report, Preparing for Climate Change in the Rogue River Basin of Southwest Oregon, indicate significant climatic changes are likely (figures showing the complete set of model results for the Rogue River Basin can be found in Appendix C of the report).
Temperature
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Annual average temperatures will increase from 1 to 3° by around 2040 and by 4 to 8° F by around 2080
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Summer temperatures may increase dramatically, averaging 7 to 15° F warmer by 2080
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Winter temperatures may average 3 to 8° by 2080
Precipitation and Snowpack
- Total precipitation may remain roughly similar to historical levels
- Increasingly likely to fall in mid-winter months rather than in spring, summer and fall
- Rising temperatures will cause snow to turn to rain in lower elevations
- Average January snowpack will decrease significantly (50 to over 75%)
Disturbance
- More severe storm events, variable weather, higher and flashier winter and spring runoff events, and increased flooding is likely
- Both wet and dry cycles are likely to last longer and be more extreme, leading to both periods of deeper drought and those of more extensive flooding
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Increased wildfire is anticipated
Vegetation Patterns
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Temperature increases and changes in precipitation patterns likely will lead to changes in vegetation, with wildfire and disease acting as catalysts
- Less of the basin will have growing conditions favorable for coastal spruce and fir
- More of the basin will have growing conditions favorable for oaks, maples, ash, and other deciduous trees as well as for mixed pines and hardwoods
- Growing conditions will favor different grape varietals and fruit trees than present
The report assesses the risks posed to natural (ecosystems and species), built (buildings, roads, energy and water systems, and other infrastructure), human (public health, emergency management, social services), and economic systems in the basin by these climate changes.
It also offers recommendations on how to build resistance and resilience in all four sectors so they are better able to withstand and recover from the effects of climate change.
This project was undertaken to help pave the way for collaborative efforts, like those conducted through the Rogue Valley Council of Governments, to plan the necessary next steps that must be taken as local communities learn to cope with the effects of climate change.
For a different perspective on the subject of climate change in the Rogue Valley, nature writer Pepper Trail and photographer Jim Chamberlain have collaborated on the new book Shifting Patterns: Meditations on Climate Change in Oregon's Rogue Valley. The book is featured on the website www.shiftingpatterns.org.
Global Context
During the past 100 years, global annual average temperatures already have risen more than 1° Fahrenheit. Warming has been slightly more rapid in the Pacific northwest where annual temperatures now average 1.5° warmer than only a century ago.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, it will take 50-100 years for the climate to stabilize due to the residence time of emissions already in the atmosphere.
photo credit: Fishing on the Upper Rogue River by Cindy Deacon Williams
