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FLASH: Check out these Klamath Basin climate change background documents! Summary of: Climate Model projections, Community Systems background, and Natural Systems Workshop results
What Does a Climate-Changed Future Hold in Store for the Klamath River Basin?
If global emissions continue on their current trajectory, projections for the Klamath River Basin indicate significant climatic changes are likely.
Temperature
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Annual average temperatures will increase from 2.5 to 4.5° C by around 2080
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Winter and Spring temperatures (Mar - Jun) are projected to increase 2 to 3.5° C
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Summer temperatures (Jul - Oct) may increase dramatically, averaging 3.5 to 5.7° C warmer
Precipitation and Snowpack
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Total precipitation may remain roughly similar to historical levels
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The frequency and intensity of heavy downpour events is likely to continue to rise
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Precipitation also is increasingly likely to fall in mid-winter months (Nov - Feb) rather than in spring, summer and fall
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Rising temperatures will cause snow to turn to rain in lower elevations
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Average January snowpack will decrease to less than 20% of current levels by 2100
Vegetation Patterns
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Temperature increases and changes in precipitation patterns likely will lead to changes in vegetation, with wildfire and disease acting as catalysts
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Less of the basin will have growing conditions favorable for hemlock, Douglas-fir, cedar, and silver fir
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More of the basin will have growing conditions favorable for oaks, mixed pines, madrone, poison oak, maple and ash
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In the upper basin, temperate grasslands are predicted to replace temperate shrublands
Climate Futures Forum
Community discussions on climate change preparation strategies were initiated in the Klamath Basin during summer 2009 by the National Center for Conservation Science & Policy and the University of Oregon's Climate Leadership Initiative.
Documents prepared in support of the Klamath Basin workshops include:
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Climate Model projections summary
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Community Systems background summary
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Natural Systems Workshop results summary
A final report, due Fall 2009, will summarize the scientific and community assessment of risks posed to natural (ecosystems and species), built (buildings, roads, energy and water systems, and other infrastructure), human (public health, emergency management, social services), and economic systems by changing climatic conditions.
It also will offer recommendations on how resistance and resilience can be built in all four sectors so they are better able to withstand and recover from the effects of climate change.
Climate projections were developed in partnership with the Pacific Northwest Research Station's MAPSS Team, and are the result of using global climate models to determine likely conditions in the Klamath Basin of southern Oregon and northern California.
Global Context
During the past 100 years, global annual average temperatures already have risen more than 1° Fahrenheit. Warming has been slightly more rapid in the Pacific northwest where annual temperatures now average 1.5° warmer than only a century ago.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, it will take 50-100 years for the climate to stabilize due to the residence time of emissions already in the atmosphere.
Top photo credit: Michael Hentz
Bottom photo credit: Roger Hamilton
